Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel on Friday, its highest close since 29 April, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia revived fears of a wider hit to Gulf energy supplies. For Bangladesh, which buys much of its fuel from the Gulf and relies on Gulf-based workers for a large share of its remittances, the timing is awkward. Fuel prices went up barely a month ago, remittance growth has cooled, and inflation is edging higher.
This is not a picture of collapse. Foreign-exchange reserves are solid, and remittances are still well above last year's level for the fiscal year so far. But the country's cushions are being tested from two directions at once.
What happened in the oil market
Reuters reported that Brent rose $3.55, or 3.14%, on Friday and finished the week about 6% higher. US crude closed at $103.27. Traders pointed to the Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and an oil spill reported by UAE authorities. Al Jazeera reported that vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz continue to come under attack, and that the odds of renewed US–Iran fighting have risen.
There is a wrinkle. Some analysts say the oil actually moving through Hormuz has recovered, which suggests the price reflects the risk of a stoppage rather than a shortage today. That offers limited comfort to an importer. A risk premium can fade quickly, but it can also harden if the fighting spreads.
Fuel prices: one hike done, pressure remains
On 21 September the government raised the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol and kerosene by Tk 20 a litre. Diesel went from Tk 115 to Tk 135, a rise of 17.4%, and octane from Tk 145 to Tk 165.
The Energy and Mineral Resources Division said international petroleum and freight prices had more than doubled since March. The state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation lost about Tk 228.76 billion (roughly $1.9 billion) between March and August, the ministry said, and the new prices should trim annual losses by around Tk 100 billion. It was the second increase since the BNP government took office in February. The first came in April.
Passengers have already reported knock-on effects. The Daily Sun quoted travellers who said some bus operators were charging up to Tk 50 more on routes out of Dhaka, and up to Tk 100 more to Chattogram, before any official fare change. Those are passenger accounts, not confirmed fare data.
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